التنبؤ بالفشل المالي والاستمرارية الاقتصادية باستخدام معيار CAMELS والسلاسل الزمنية: مدخل تحليلي

المؤلفون

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31272/jae.i147.1386

الكلمات المفتاحية:

الفشل المالي، الاستمرارية، معيار الجمال، السلاسل الزمنية

الملخص

هدفت الدراسة التحري عن التنبؤ بالفشل المالي وتقييم أداء البنوك وتصنيفها بهدف توفير نظام إنذار مبكر للفشل المالي المستقبلي. اعتمدت الدراسة على السلاسل الزمنية ومعيار camel للتنبؤ بالفشل المالي الذي يعتمد على مجموعة من المؤشرات التقليدية. تضمن العينة ثمان مصارف عراقية مدرجة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية للعام 2010-2020. اشارت النتائج إلى ان المؤشرات المالية تساعد مراقبي الحسابات في تقدير استمرارية المصارف، وتشير نتائج المؤشرات (المالية والتشغيلية) إلى عدم اليقين بشأن المصارف عبر تحديد قدرتها على الاستمرار. تقدم الدراسة أدلة على اهمية اعتماد مراقبي الحسابات أساليب الإنذار المبكر بفشل المصارف. وتأتي أهمية الدراسة من أهمية القطاع المصرفي العراقي وللدور الكبير الذي يلعبه هذا في العراق؛ تسلط الدراسة الضوء على العديد من المعوقات والمشاكل التي تؤدي إلى الفشل وعدم قدرة المصارف على الاستمرار.

المراجع

[1] A. A. Nehme Et Al., “The Impact Of Covid-19 On Football Club Stock Integration And Portfolio Diversification,” Revista Iberoamericana De Psicologia Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte, Vol. 18, No. 5, Pp. 562–567, 2023.

[2] A. Rashid And Q. Abbas, “Predicting Bankruptcy In Pakistan.,” Theoretical & Applied Economics, Vol. 18, No. 9, 2011.

[3] A. Riahi-Belkaoui, “Politically-Connected Firms: Are They Connected To Earnings Opacity?” Research In Accounting Regulation, Vol. 17, Pp. 25–38, 2004.

[4] A. S. Tofan And H. K. Breesam, “Identify The Appropriate Key Performance Indicators For Evaluating The Performance Of Construction Companies In Iraq,” International Journal Of Engineering & Technology, Vol. 7, No. 4.20, P. 459, 2018.

[5] A. W. Abdallah And S. S. Dawood, “The Impact Of Gross Domestic Product Response To The Money Supply Shock In The Iraqi Economy For The Period (2004-2021),” Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences, Vol. 29, No. 137, Pp. 131–145, 2023.

[6] G. M. Hamid, G. A. Mohammed, K. M. T. Omar, And S. M. R. Haji, “Using Altman And Sherrod Z-Score Models To Detect Financial Failure For The Banks Listed On The Iraqi Stock Exchange (Ise) Between 2009–2013,” International Journal Of Professional Business Review: Int. J. Prof. Bus. Rev., Vol. 8, No. 4, P. 11, 2023.

[7] K. Valaskova, D. Gajdosikova, And J. Belas, “Bankruptcy Prediction In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study Of Visegrad Group Countries,” Oeconomia Copernicana, Vol. 14, No. 1, Pp. 253–293, 2023.

[8] M. A. Al–Lozi, B. R. T. Shammout, And M. M. Al Dabbas, “Predicting Financial Failure And Its Impact On Reducing Financial Risks The Mediating Role Of The Financial Analysis Models,” Migration Letters, Vol. 21, No. 4, Pp. 334–344, 2024.

[9] M. D. Salman, A. H. Mohammed, And H. H. Flayyih, “Financial Safety Indicators Under Financial Crises And Their Impact On Banking Finance: An Applied Study In Iraqi Banks,” Studies Of Applied Economics, Vol. 39, No. 11, 2021.

[10] M. Feng And C. Li, “Auditor Going-Concern Opinions And Management Forecasts Of Financially Distressed Firms,” 2009. [Online]. Available: Https://Www.Researchgate.Net/Publication/229051631

[11] M. Gholamazad, J. Pourmahmoud, A. Atashi, M. Farhoudi, And R. Deljavan Anvari, “Determination Of Disease Risk Factors Using Binary Data Envelopment Analysis And Logistic Regression Analysis (Case Study: A Stroke Risk Factors),” Journal Of Modelling In Management, Vol. 19, No. 2, Pp. 693–714, 2024.

[12] M. J. Mohammed, J. A. Hiloaliabi, B. F. K. Al-Taie, And H. H. Flayyih, “The Effect Of Using Audit Procedures In Accordance With The Ias 545 In Assessing Audit Risk El Efecto De Utilizar Procedimientos De Auditoría De Acuerdo Con La Nic 545 En La Evaluación Del Riesgo De Auditoría. 39 (November), 1–20.” 2021.

[13] M. Nerlove, D. M. Grether, And J. L. Carvalho, Analysis Of Economic Time Series: A Synthesis. Academic Press, 2014.

[14] M. Rabea Et Al., “Green Banking: A Literature Review On Profitability And Sustainability Implications,” Ishtar Journal Of Economics And Business Studies (Ijebs), Vol. 4, No. 2, 2023, Doi: 10.55270/Ijebs.V4i2.27.

[15] N. H. A. Alyaseri Et Al., “Exploring The Modeling Of Socio-Technical Systems In The Fields Of Sport, Engineering And Economics,” Revista Iberoamericana De Psicologia Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte, Vol. 18, No. 3, Pp. 338–341, 2023.

[16] O. K. Natufe And E. I. Evbayiro-Osagie, “Credit Risk Management And The Financial Performance Of Deposit Money Banks: Some New Evidence,” Journal Of Risk And Financial Management, Vol. 16, No. 7, P. 302, 2023.

[17] R. H. Hadi, H. N. Hady, A. M. Hasan, A. Al-Jodah, And A. J. Humaidi, “Improved Fault Classification For Predictive Maintenance In Industrial Iot Based On Automl: A Case Study Of Ball-Bearing Faults,” Processes, Vol. 11, No. 5, P. 1507, 2023.

[18] R. Sellah, “Environmental Accounting Disclosure And Its Impact On The Comprehensive Financial Performance Of Economic Institutions-A Descriptive And Analytical Study,” International Journal Of Economic Performance, Vol. 6, No. 01, 2023.

[19] S. A. Alwan et al., “The Psychological Effects Of Perfectionism On Sport, Economic And Engineering Students,” Revista Iberoamericana De Psicologia Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte, Vol. 18, No. 3, Pp. 330–333, 2023.

[20] S. I. Ali And H. H. Flayyih, “The Role Of The External Audit In Assessing Continuity Of Companies Under The Financial Crisis: An Applied Study In The Iraqi Banks Listed In The Iraq Stock Exchange For The Period 2016-2019,” Studies Of Applied Economics, Vol. 39, No. 11, 2021.

[21] S. I. Hasan, H. S. Saeed, T. K. Al-Abedi, And H. H. Flayyih, “The Role Of Target Cost Management Approach In Reducing Costs For The Achievement Of Competitive Advantage As A Mediator: An Applied Study Of The Iraqi Electrical Industry,” International Journal Of Economics And Finance Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2, Pp. 214–230, 2023, Doi: 10.34109/Ijefs.202315211.

[22] S. Kazem Ebrahimi, A. Bahraminasab, And F. S. Seyedi, “International Review Of Management And Marketing The Impact Of Camel Indexes On Profit Management In Banks Listed On Tehran Stock Exchange,” International Review Of Management And Marketing, Vol. 7, No. 2, Pp. 421–429, 2017, [Online]. Available: Http:Www.Econjournals.Com

[23] S. Toms, Systems Of Deceit: Financial Fraud And Scandal In The United Kingdom, 1700–2010. World Scientific, 2024.

[24] U. Shetty, T. P. M. Pakkala, And T. Mallikarjunappa, “A Modified Directional Distance Formulation Of Dea To Assess Bankruptcy: An Application To It/Ites Companies In India,” Expert Syst Appl, Vol. 39, No. 2, Pp. 1988–1997, 2012.

[25] Y. Almeshref, Y. A. Abdullah, W. K. O. Al-Obaidi, H. H. Flayyih, M. K. Hussein, And M. F. Hasan, “Earnings Management Under The Positive Theory Of Accounting: A Literature Review,” Ishtar Journal Of Economics And Business Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2, Pp. 1–14, 2020.

[26] Z. H. Aliwi, A. I. Ibrahim, And K. K. Jawad, “Use Of Decision-Making Tree Technology And Banal Measure To Predict The Financial Failure Of Iraqi Private Banks And Sustain Their Profits,” Ishtar Journal Of Economics And Business Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2021.

التنزيلات

منشور

2025-03-02

كيفية الاقتباس

التنبؤ بالفشل المالي والاستمرارية الاقتصادية باستخدام معيار CAMELS والسلاسل الزمنية: مدخل تحليلي. (2025). مجلة الإدارة والاقتصاد, 50(147), 107-122. https://doi.org/10.31272/jae.i147.1386

المؤلفات المشابهة

1-10 من 224

يمكنك أيضاً إبدأ بحثاً متقدماً عن المشابهات لهذا المؤلَّف.