رصد التغيرات في الطلب على النقود خلال الأزمات المصرفية باستخدام نماذج التكامل المشترك ( Co integration Models ) (دراسة تطبيقية على الأزمة المصرفية لدول جنوب شرق آسيا)

Abstract

      The banking crisis is a form of financial crises, which is appearing as competing the individuals to banks to recover their deposits with these banks, as a result of the banking panic, which dominate on individuals after their awareness of the financial situation of the banking system, which will make the banks in case of  banking insolvency that may force the banking system in general to stop the convertibility of its obligations, or force the government to intervene to provide assistance to the banking system.

        The banking crisis has a serious impact on the local economy, as well as on the international economy. Although many studies have dealt with such effects, but it is rare to find studies "to the knowledge of researchers" discuss the impact of the banking crisis on the demand for money.

       Hence the importance of this research, is try to detect the impact of the banking crisis on the demand for money, because of the extreme importance of this issue, where the task of monetary policy will become more complex due to the instability of the demand for money through the banking crisis, then the monetary policy maker will not possess a clear vision, because he may not know the levels of money supply that would be more appropriate to achieve the targeting interest rate. And the search will start from the hypothesis: the banking crisis has effect on the demand for money function, which may reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy tools. And will search to prove this hypothesis on the inductive approach by relying on the modern approach of time series econometrics, using (Co integration model) to determine if the demand for money function estimated reflects a bogus function, on the one hand, on the other hand know whether the variables of the demand for money function remain stable during the long-term or not. Although it is possible to use the methodology of this research on any banking crisis in any country, but the research has been identified within the banking crisis of the South-East Asia in1997.