Predicting stock market value using Markov chains (Analytical study for Apple)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31272/jae.i141.1013Keywords:
Markov chains , market value .Abstract
The current research aims to study the possibility of using Markov chains to predict the value of stocks in the financial markets after it has been successfully used in many other scientific applications. The research problem was determined by the possibility of using this model in the stock markets by predicting the market value of stocks. On the basis of the research problem, the research sample was determined by Apple, which specializes in the phone industry, for the period from (2017 - 2021) and with weekly closing prices for the purpose of achieving the research goal, and one main hypothesis was developed, which was: “The Markov chain model can be used to predict the market value of Apple shares.” . In order to reach the results that the research seeks to achieve, a number of statistical methods were used, including the probability matrix, the greatest possibility matrix, as well as the stability matrix. The research reached a number of results, the most important of which is that the Markov chain model can be used to predict the market value of Apple shares.
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