التحليل السببي للعلاقة بين الائتمان المصرفي والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق عبر قطاع الاستثمار باستخدام نموذج SVAR

المؤلفون

  • اسراء خالد شاكر شاكر شعبة الشوؤن المالية، كلية العلوم، الجامعة المستنصرية، بغداد، العراق. https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5206-3439

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31272/jae.i152.1571

الكلمات المفتاحية:

الائتمان المصرفي، الاستثمار، النمو الاقتصادي، نموذج الانحدار الذاتي الهيكلي (SVAR).

الملخص

تُحلّل هذه الدراسة التفاعل بين الائتمان المصرفي، الاستثمار، والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق، مع التركيز على أثر آلية انتقال الائتمان في اقتصاد ما بعد الحرب القائم على الموارد الطبيعية. اعتمد البحث على بيانات سنوية للسلاسل الزمنية تغطي الفترة 1960–2023، مستخدماً نموذج SVAR إلى جانب اختبارات Phillips–Perron للجذور الأحادية، وتحليل السببية لغرانجر، ودوال الاستجابة للصدمة، وتحليل تفكك التباين. أظهرت النتائج أن الائتمان المصرفي يُسهم في التنبؤ بالاستثمار والنمو الاقتصادي، فيما تشير النتائج الهيكلية إلى أن تأثير الائتمان على التنمية الاقتصادية يتحقق جزئياً عبر الاستثمار. كما تبيّن أن عملية انتقال الائتمان تتسم بالتباين، إذ إن بعض صدمات الائتمان تُحدث آثاراً سلبية على الاستثمار، مما يعكس وجود قصور في كفاءة تخصيص الائتمان. وفي المقابل، يُعزى النمو الاقتصادي بدرجة كبيرة إلى قوى داخلية ناجمة على الأرجح عن العوامل المالية، والاعتماد المفرط على النفط، فضلاً عن الصدمات الخارجية الأخرى التي يتعرض لها الاقتصاد العراقي. وتخلص الدراسة إلى أن الإمكانات التنموية للائتمان في العراق لا تتوقف على مدى توافره فحسب، بل تعتمد أيضاً على فعالية تخصيصه، إضافةً إلى جوانب أخرى مرتبطة بالتطور المؤسسي..

التنزيلات

تنزيل البيانات ليس متاحًا بعد.

المراجع

[1] A.W. Adebisi, (2023), “Bank credits and economic growth,” Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management, Vol. 10, No. 10, pp. 240-258. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36347/sjebm.2023.v10i10.002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36347/sjebm.2023.v10i10.002

[2] K. Ahmed, and M. Driss, (2024), “Examining the Interactions of Economic Growth and Bank Credit to the Private Sector in Morocco: A causality Analysis,” Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, Vol. 45, No. 3, pp. (Page numbers not available in source). DOI not available.

[3] S.A. Somma, R.O. Omotinuwe, and N.O. Abdurrahman, (2025), “Mathematical Model for the Control of Unemployment in Nigeria Incorporating Vocational Education and Apprenticeship,” Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 1-17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v36i2.1655. DOI: https://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v36i2.1655

[4] T. Belinga, J. Zhou, E. Doumbe-Doumbe, Z.S.Y. Gahe, and Y.S.L. Koffi, (2016), “Causality relationship between bank credit and economic growth: Evidence from a time series analysis on a vector error correction model in Cameroon,” Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 235, pp. 664-671. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.11.061. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.11.061

[5] J. Breitung, and S. Eickmeier, (2011), “Testing for Structural Breaks in Dynamic Factor Models,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 163, No. 1, pp. 71-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.01.004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.11.008

[6] F. Canova, (2007), “Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research,” Princeton University Press, Princeton. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400839522.

[7] C. Chen, Y. Zhang, Y. Bai, and W. Li, (2021), “The impact of green credit on economic growth-The mediating effect of environment on labor supply,” PLoS One, Vol. 16, No. 9, p. e0257612. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257612. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257612

[8] S.N. Chukwunweike, (2018), “Bank Credit and economic growth in Nigeria: A Multi-sectorial analysis of 1981-2016,” IDOSR Journal of Banking, Economics and Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 74-90. DOI not available.

[9] W. Enders, (2014), “Applied Econometric Time Series,” Wiley, 4th ed., Hoboken. DOI not available.

[10] EViews, (2022), “User's Guide: Time Series Econometrics and Forecasting,” IHS Global Inc., Report (Report number not available in source). [Available through EViews documentation portal].

[11] Y. Feng, Y. Pan, C. Sun, and J. Niu, (2024), “Assessing the effect of green credit on risk-taking of commercial banks in China: Further analysis on the two-way Granger causality,” Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 437, p. 140698. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.140698. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.140698

[12] M. Grbić, and S. Luković, (2020), “Relationship between banks' credit activity and economic growth: An empirical research for the Republic of Serbia,” Industrija, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp. 37-53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija48-27225. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija48-27225

[13] E.A.R. Guerra, (2017), “The economic growth and the banking credit in Mexico: Granger causality and short-term effects, 2001Q1-2016Q4,” Economía Informa, Vol. 406, pp. 46-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.10.004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.10.004

[14] J.D. Hamilton, (1994), “Time Series Analysis,” Princeton University Press, Princeton. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691218632. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691218632

[15] Y. Helhel, (2018), “Financial development and economic growth relationship: An analysis with credit based financial index,” Business and Economics Research Journal, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 761-771. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20409/berj.2018.137. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20409/berj.2018.137

[16] Z.Q. Hussein, K.H. Al Marzouk, and E.A. Mahmood, (2022), “The Impact of Bank Credit on Investment and Public Spending in Iraq for the Period (2005-2021),” International Journal of Professional Business Review, Vol. 7, No. 6, p. e0871. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2022.v7i6.e871. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2022.v7i6.e871

[17] L. Kilian, and H. Lütkepohl, (2017), “Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108186835. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108164818

[18] H. Lutkepohl, (2005), “New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis,” Springer, Berlin. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1

[19] S. Majeed, and S.F. Iftikhar, (2020), “Modeling the Relationship between Banking Sector Credit and Economic Growth: A Sectoral Analysis for Pakistan,” Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. (Page numbers not available in source). DOI not available.

[20] A.H. Ntarmah, Y. Kong, and E.K. Manu, (2021), “Investigating the dynamic relationships between credit supply, economic growth, and the environment: empirical evidence of sub-regional economies in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Vol. 28, pp. 5786-5808. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10875-0. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10875-0

[21] P.K. Ozili, O. Oladipo, and P.T. Iorember, (2023), “Effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria,” African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 583-599. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-02-2022-0036. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-02-2022-0036

[22] U.C. Paul, (2020), “The causal relationship between private sector credit growth and economic growth in Bangladesh: use of Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test in VAR model,” (Source type and publication details not available). DOI not available.

[23] M.H. Pesaran, and Y. Shin, (1998), “Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,” Economics Letters, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 17-29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0

[24] H. Pham, and P. Nguyen, (2020), “Empirical research on the impact of credit on economic growth in Vietnam,” Management Science Letters, Vol. 10, No. 12, pp. 2897-2904. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2020.4.017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2020.4.017

[25] S.S. Sajadi, A.A. Khosravinejad, H. Momeni Vesalian, and G. Emamverdi, (2023), “Investigating the Causal Relationship Between Bank Credits and Economic Growth: Markov Switching Nonlinear Granger Causality Approach,” Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 31-64. DOI not available.

[26] L. Sezal, and B. Taşkın, (2024), “THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND EMPLOYMENT: AN APPLICATION ON TÜRKİYE WITH CAUSALITY ANALYSIS,” Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 1-15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1402272. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1402272

[27] C.A. Sims, (1980), “Macroeconomics and Reality,” Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 1-48. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017

[28] J.H. Stock, and M.W. Watson, (2020), “Introduction to Econometrics,” Pearson, 4th ed., Harlow. DOI not available.

[29] A. Tecel, S. Katircioğlu, E. Taheri, and F. Victor Bekun, (2020), “Causal interactions among tourism, foreign direct investment, domestic credits, and economic growth: evidence from selected Mediterranean countries,” Portuguese Economic Journal, Vol. 19, pp. 195-212. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00181-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-020-00181-5

[30] O.A. Usman, O.A. Aina-David, and S.O. Yinus, (2022), “Assessment of Relationship between Market Dynamics, Bank Credit and Economic Growth,” SSRN Report. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4071992. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4071992

[31] M.R. Vasconcelos, V.G. Reginato, and M.S. da Cunha, (2021), “An empirical analysis of the relationship between bank credit and economic growth,” Textos de Economia, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 1-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8085.2021.e72868. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5007/2175-8085.2021.e72868

التنزيلات

منشور

2026-06-01

كيفية الاقتباس

التحليل السببي للعلاقة بين الائتمان المصرفي والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق عبر قطاع الاستثمار باستخدام نموذج SVAR. (2026). مجلة الإدارة والاقتصاد, 51(152), 83-97. https://doi.org/10.31272/jae.i152.1571

المؤلفات المشابهة

71-80 من 124

يمكنك أيضاً إبدأ بحثاً متقدماً عن المشابهات لهذا المؤلَّف.