A comparison between product development alternatives using the decision tree - A case study at Al Samawa Refinery

Abstract

This research aims to use the decision tree in the comparison between two alternatives
to develop one of the refining units for Al-Samawa Refinery, which is the third refining
unit, by replacing some of its parts due to its aging, which affected the quality of the
refinery products, including gas oil (research sample), and the ability of the refiner to
meet the demand The future is characterized by continuous rise. These two alternatives
are:
1- Replace the trays of the third unit refining tower.
2- Rehabilitation of furnaces, exchangers and pumps of the third refining unit.
The research has started from the following main question: (How can the decision tree
method be used to choose the appropriate alternative from among the alternatives
available to the refiner to develop the third refining unit based on the criteria of costs,
revenues and profits derived from each alternative?) The research relied on the case study method in building a decision tree to compare the
two alternatives available to the refinery for development, by adopting quantitative data
for predicting future demand for gas oil and estimating the possibilities of achieving this
demand, and then determining the costs, revenues and profits related to each alternative.
The research also reached a set of conclusions and recommendations.
The most important conclusion is the priority of the first alternative, which is the decision
to replace the trays of the third unit refining tower, as it achieves higher profits in light of
both possibilities of demand (optimistic and pessimistic).
As for the most important recommendation, it was necessary to take the decision to
develop to meet the increase in the current and expected demand, and to choose the
alternative that includes replacing the trays of the third unit, which is considered the best
alternative according to the findings of the research.