التضخم بين متغيرات الاقتصاد الحقيقي والتحليل النقدي

Abstract

          The paper aims to shed light on the dynamics of inflation highlighting the role of cost and macroeconomic real sector variables.

The most recent research works have been reviewed in an attempt to reassess the prevailing assumptions and related conceptual frameworks based on the finding of empirical studies.

Bottlenecks and supply challenges are acute in the economy of Iraq, considering the high level of government expenditure and the limited capacity of none - oil economy.

Furthermore, government expenditure dominates the creation of liquidity while the monetary authority has no enough effective instruments to control. Noting, the small size of Iraqi financial sector, CBI interest rate can do little to affect the credit activity.

The paper addresses the relationship between general price level measured by cbi in Iraq, monetary aggregates and exchange rate. Traditional regression and correlation analysis is conducted with a trial to test causality. To be specific, the paper presents the available data and preliminary quantitative search.

Anticipating better information covering GDP, and its sectoral components, wages, employment, and cost structure of domestic goods and services to investigate the process of inflation in Iraq thoroughly. Relative prices, in Iraq, have been changing since 1990 in away reflecting supply side conditions. Also, the disturbance of foreign exchange supply from oil source has interlinked with the demand gap of fuel shortages and non tradable sector to generate inflation.