Estimation of the epidemiological model (COVID-19) based on the system of multiple differential equations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31272/jae.i134.1210Keywords:
SIRD model, basic reproduction number, COVID-19, epidemics, nonlinear least squaresAbstract
The research deals with the use of one of the epidemic models, which is the (SIRD) model (exposed to infection S - infected I - recovered R - deceased D), which consists of a system of multiple differential equations (ODE) to cover the data on the spread of the Corona epidemic in Iraq for the period from the date of the first case of infection On (24/2/2020) until (22/2/2020), the model parameters are estimated according to the nonlinear least squares method for the reported data as well as predicting the development of the epidemic outbreak, and an important parameter was identified in the epidemiological models is the basic reproduction number) (R_0 is The expected number of secondary cases produced by the infected person early in the epidemic, and the results showed a decline in the spread of the epidemic as a result of taking vaccinations and increasing the preventive measures taken.
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