تقدير الناتج الكامن وفجوة الناتج في العراق للمدة (2003-2014)

Abstract

    The output gap is one of the most important economic indicators that occupies  economists and policy maker minds ; It is the difference between real GDP from potential GDP, because of the clarification of the reality of the economy and the actual potential.

    The research aims to estimate the Potential GDP and output gap in Iraq for the period (2003 – 2014), and stems from the assumption that the output gap is negative for the period (2003 – 2014) and therefore the latent GDP  is greater  than the  real GDP  . For the purpose of verification of this hypothesis , has been estimated  stocks of fixed capital to Iraq for the same period under study; to estimate potential GDP using the production function Cobb – Douglas.

    The research has come to the existence of a negative gap on the length of period (2003 – 2014); because of the superiority of Potential GDP the real GDP, which is increasing annually increasing growth rates, implying the existence of a deflationary gap in the Iraqi economy on the length of period which is a waste of resources available to the community, leading to the emergence of deflation in the Iraqi economy.