Using the General Trend Model to Predict Rainfall Amounts in Baghdad Governorate for 2024-2032
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31272/jae.i147.1377Keywords:
Trend, forecast, time series, rain fallingAbstract
The water crisis and environmental changes are considered complex tasks for countries in general and Iraq in particular. The fact that Iraq is currently facing a water shortage in the levels of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and the decrease in rainfall has prompted many researchers and specialists to research and study problems. Rainfall, analyzing it scientifically, and finding alternatives and solutions to it this is what was focused on in this research by following the method of forecasting and estimating the possibilities of the causes of the occurrence of the phenomenon, and through it, it is possible to calculate the cases of transition from one state to another or to predict the stability of the phenomenon in the future. This research consists of two main parts: the theoretical aspect, which contains statistical methods using the general trend model adopted, and the applied aspect. The applied element includes collecting data, represented in the amounts of rain falling in Baghdad Governorate from 2012 to 2022 and the amounts of rain falling predicted from 2024 to 2032. The research concluded that there is a shortage that Iraq will face in the coming years
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